– Global vehicle sales will decline over the next two decades as consumers embrace on-demand ride services like Uber, but demand for oil will keep rising, according to a study released Tuesday.
Another counterintuitive finding from the study by IHS Markit was that more than 80 percent of the vehicles sold worldwide in 2040 will still use some form of petroleum-fueled combustion engine.
Annual vehicle sales in the United States, Europe, China and India will decline over the next 23 years to 54 million in 2040, as total miles traveled rises 65 percent to around 11 billion miles a year, the study projected. About 80 million vehicles a year are sold currently in those regions.
Although there will be fewer cars sold, demand for petroleum, especially for non-transportation uses, is expected to rise, from the current 98 million barrels a day to 115 million barrels a day in 2040.
According to IHS Markit, which provides economic forecasts and data to the global energy and automotive markets, battery-powered all-electric vehicles will account for about 19 percent of sales by 2040. This compares with an estimated 14 percent of production by 2030 in a forecast by Boston Consulting Group on Nov. 2.
IHS Markit forecast that plug-in hybrid electric vehicles – those with elect